S2F creator PlanB: Bitcoin has not yet reached ‚point of no return‘

After surviving the worst sell-off in months unscathed, the current Bitcoin uptrend seems completely unstoppable.

Despite the incredible momentum that took the cryptocurrency from $10,000 to $40,000 in a flash, the creator of the world’s most cited valuation model says the asset has yet to reach the „point of no return.“

And when it does, the true parabolic rise will unfold.

But what should we expect from Bitcoin as it enters the final phase of its bull run later this year?

PlanB: The Bitcoin rally is heating up.

Bitcoin is more coveted than ever and now in the interest of top economists, institutional investors and hedge fund managers. After being dismissed as a mere fad, Wall Street and the wealthy are starting to buy Bitcoin.

The sudden surge in demand, coupled with a diminishing supply, has caused a bullish breakout that has seen the price per BTC skyrocket more than fivefold. The surge in price has long been predicted by Plan B’s stock-to-flow model (S2F), but has only recently begun to show validity.

#bitcoin $38K is nice, but I am still waiting for that larger monthly jump that usually marks the phase transition / the point of no return (red arrows) #phase5 pic.twitter.com/mWOLadqOys
– PlanB (@100trillionUSD) January 14, 2021

The model led some investors to expect the cryptocurrency to trade above $50,000 by May 2020, but that date came and went – and Bitcoin still hasn’t reached such a level. But according to the creator of the model, BTC could very well reach that number soon – and then rise even higher once Bitcoin reaches the point of no return in this parabolic cycle.

Can we use the past to calculate Bitcoin’s future price?

The stock-to-flow model attempts to set an estimated valuation of the price per BTC based on scarcity alone. The hard-coded mechanism to halve the asset’s block reward further reduces the already limited supply.

When this happened in May 2020, there was no immediate reaction that drove the price above $50,000 – but it did put Bitcoin on the path it is currently on.

And while there are startling comparisons between now and the 2017 peak, Plan B’s model shows that the real bull run hasn’t even started yet. That’s the „point of no return“ referred to by the model’s creator.
Each „point of no return“ brought 600-800% ROI | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The chart above shows what this „point of no return“ looks like. From this point, the value of the leading cryptocurrency by market cap increases by another 600-800%.

A similar rise from current levels would take the price per BTC to around $250,000-$350,000, which is not unrealistic considering the targets that various experts are predicting.

If you overlay the previous bull market with the current one, the top is around $325,000. Analysts have offered targets as high as $400,000 to $500,000 per coin in the long run.

That bitcoin continues to rise from here is less an important question than how high it goes and when that point of no return begins.